Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week down -1.5%. Here are the top stocks to watch this week, and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $RBLX
Break above 61.61 🎯 65.26 & 69.15
• $PLTR
Break above 98.40 🎯 106.91 & 112.06
• $UBER
Break above 76.78 🎯 80.10 & 82.10
• $V
Break below 327.70 🎯 313.27 & 302.82
• $COIN
Break above 183.90 🎯 200 & 217.45
• $NVDA
Break below 99.15 🎯 92.11 & 86.62

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

Weekly Market Recap

Moderate Tariff Outlook

In the moderate-tariff scenario, the most likely outcome is that average U.S. tariff rates remain around 10% to 15%, excluding elevated rates on China and key sectors. Inflation could rise to 3.5%–4%, peaking later this year before easing. GDP growth may slow to around 1%, avoiding a recession. The Fed may stay patient, cutting rates two or three times in late 2025 if data weakens further.

Market & Fed Response

Under moderate tariffs, S&P 500 earnings growth would soften but remain positive. Markets may stabilize without a full rebound, with diversified portfolios performing relatively well. Bond yields may stay range-bound between 4.0%–4.5%, with modest gains if the Fed cuts later in the year. The Fed is likely to act if slower growth and higher unemployment take hold in the second half of 2025.

High Tariff Risks

If tariffs escalate meaningfully, a less likely scenario, average rates could rise to 25%, pushing inflation toward 5% and the economy into recession. The Fed may cut rates four or five times in response. The S&P 500 could drop over 20% from its highs, while bond yields fall below 4.0% as investors shift to safety. Defensive positions would dominate portfolios in this high-tariff environment.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include PMI data and new home sales for March. On the earnings front, TSLA, INTC, GOOGL, ORLY, BA, AAL, and IBM are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Apple was on brink of crisis before Trump tariff concession.
• Most CEOs were doubting their boards even before Trump's tariff turmoil.
• The Trump family is going all-in on crypto projects, from Bitcoin mining to stablecoins.
• Is China witnessing its Lehman moment as Zhongrong shadow bank that managed $108 bn faces liquidation?
• Bond market is the Achilles’ heel of Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ budget bill, say investors

Trading Quote Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #16 | April 20, 2025

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