Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week up 2.9%. Here are the top stocks to watch this week, and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $TSLA
Break below 259.51 🎯 237.97 & 221.86
• $META
Break below 570.50 🎯 549 & 529.50
• $NKE
Break above 59.55 🎯 62.65 & 64.96
• $MSFT
Break below 424.90 🎯 412.65 & 400
• $NVDA
Break above 118.84 🎯 124.92 & 130.64
• $AMZN
Break above 196.01 🎯 201.36 & 208.36

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

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Weekly Market Recap

Earnings Hold Up

Q1 earnings season has been strong, with 76% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations and earnings growth tracking at 12.5%. However, forward guidance is weaker. Big tech firms like Microsoft and Meta showed strong AI investment, but Apple, Amazon, and major consumer names flagged concerns over tariffs and softening demand. Full-year earnings growth is expected near 9.5%, but risks remain to the downside.

GDP Reversal Likely

U.S. Q1 GDP shrank -0.3%, mainly due to a surge in pre-tariff imports. Yet, consumption and business investment stayed resilient. While growth is expected to slow to ~1.5% for 2025, a modest recovery is likely if tariffs ease and the Fed cuts rates later this year. A mild recession is possible if tariffs stay high, but with solid fundamentals and Fed flexibility, a prolonged downturn is unlikely.

Labor Market Resilient

April’s jobs report showed strength with 177,000 new jobs and steady 4.2% unemployment. Wage growth slowed but still outpaces inflation, keeping real incomes positive. However, as tariffs weigh on growth, the labor market may cool. The Fed remains cautious, and while rate cuts are still expected, stronger jobs data have reduced the likelihood of a June move, shifting expectations to later in 2025.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include the FOMC meeting and ISM services PMI. On the earnings front, PLTR, AMD, SMCI, UBER, COIN, F, DIS, MARA, PTON, RIVN, DDOG, UPST, SHOP, DKNG, DASH, and AFRM are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Global race to lure US researchers intensifies after Trump cuts funding.
• Private equity firms target defense assets once seen as toxic.
• Foreign funds sour on US corporate bonds as Trump sows chaos.
• Indian stock market's $489-bn equity rally is winning back global funds.
• Mark Mobius says his funds hold 95% in cash on trade war risks.

Trading Quote Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #18 | May 4, 2025

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