Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week down -0.5%. Here are the top stocks to watch this week, and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $RBLX
Break above 72.95 🎯 75.74 & 78
• $META
Break below 570.50 🎯 549 & 529.50
• $AMD
Break below 100.36 🎯 96.65 & 91.87
• $MSFT
Break below 424.90 🎯 412.65 & 400
• $NVDA
Break above 118.84 🎯 124.92 & 130.64
• $AMZN
Break above 196.01 🎯 201.36 & 208.36

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

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Weekly Market Recap

Trade Talks Progress

The U.S. reached a limited trade deal with the U.K., maintaining 10% tariffs but easing levies on steel and aluminum. Talks with China are also set to begin, which could help de-escalate tensions. While the economic impact of the U.K. deal is modest, it signals constructive movement. A reduction or pause in tariffs, even temporarily, would likely support market sentiment and trade flows.

Fed Holds Steady

The Fed kept rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, citing risks to both inflation and employment. While monetary policy remains restrictive, markets are pricing in rate cuts starting mid-year. With inflation around 2.3% and tariffs posing short-term risks to prices, the Fed appears poised to act if growth weakens. Lower rates later in 2025 could support both consumer borrowing and corporate earnings.

Services & Stocks

Services data remained in expansion, with ISM and S&P PMIs above 50, despite mixed business activity. Stocks rebounded on easing trade fears and solid Q1 earnings. Financials and health care are less tariff-sensitive and may benefit from pro-growth policies. We continue to favor U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, and see value in intermediate-term bonds, especially if the Fed begins cutting rates.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include CPI inflation data and a read on consumer sentiment. On the earnings front, BABA, WMT, CSCO, and PLUG are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Shipping docks are ground zero for Trump tariffs.
• Trade chaos is part of the plan for Trump, nightmare for Powell.
• Shein, Temu report drop in sales, weighed down by US tariffs.
• China’s factories start to imagine world without American buyers.
• Silicon Valley has been trying to shake up defense contracting for years.

Trading Quote Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #19 | May 11, 2025

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