Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week down -0.2%. Here are the top stocks to watch this week, and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $TSLA
Break above 335.50 🎯 355.40 & 367.71
• $PYPL
Break above 72.26 🎯 74.22 & 75.31
• $CAT
Break below 352.26 🎯 344.92 & 336.24
• $META
Break below 666.85 🎯 652 & 638.40
• $AAPL
Break above 201.25 🎯 205.54 & 209.48
• $CVS
Break above 149.98 🎯 152.46 & 156.12

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

Weekly Market Recap

Fed on Pause

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, signaling a split outlook: some officials see no cuts this year, others expect two. GDP is set to rebound after a tariff-related dip in Q1, and consumer spending shows resilience despite caution. With labor markets steady, the Fed is pausing to monitor whether current conditions justify easing later this year.

Tariff Price Pressures

Inflation has stayed contained so far, but tariff-related price pressures loom. With inventories running low and firms starting to hike prices, the Fed lifted its 2025 inflation forecast. Services may keep inflation anchored, but goods prices face pressure. If tariffs persist, price increases may continue into 2026, though the overall bump may prove short-lived.

Cautious Rate Path

The Fed remains on hold this summer but hasn’t ruled out easing. The median forecast still shows two cuts in 2025. With geopolitical risks like the Israel-Iran conflict adding uncertainty, especially around oil markets, investors should brace for volatility. Still, if inflation cools and growth moderates, a slow and steady rate-cut cycle could resume by year-end.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include PCE inflation data and consumer confidence. On the earnings front, MU, FDX, CCL, and NKE are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Trump Flexes Security Powers to Keep Global Tariff Goal Alive.
• Many Exporters No Longer Want Dollars, US Bank Executive Says.
• Sam Altman says Meta offered OpenAI staff $100 million bonuses, as Mark Zuckerberg ramps up AI poaching efforts.
• Auto Tariffs Seen Hiking Car Prices by Nearly $2,000 Per Vehicle.
• Three Rate Cuts in 24 Hours Show Europe’s Tariff Challenges.

Trading Quote Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #25 | June 22, 2025

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