Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week down -4.2%, but still up 13.4% year-to-date. And we have another big week ahead of us with CPI inflation numbers coming out on Wednesday. Here are the top stocks to watch this week and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $MCD
Break above 294.31 🎯 298.74 & 302.39
• $AAPL
Break above 225.48 🎯 230.40 & 232.92
• $NVDA
Break below 100.95 🎯 97.52 & 92.06
• $WFC
Break above 54.89 🎯 56.41 & 57.45
• $META
Break below 494.72 🎯 488.92 & 478.65
• $GOOGL
Break below 149.85 🎯 146.08 & 141.18

KV’s S&P 500 Analysis

KV here with your weekly SPY levels! The S&P 500 rejected the $565 area once again, forming a double top at the all-time high levels. Even though last week was a short week, the price really extended to the downside due to the heavy selling volume. The next demand zone will be closer to $535 which we also have a daily gap from mid-August, and where buyers can be expected to step in.

Weekly Market Recap

Labor Market Softens

Recent data shows a weakening U.S. labor market. Job openings fell to 7.7 million, the lowest of the year, and new jobs came in below expectations at 142,000. Sector trends also shifted, with losses in manufacturing and lower gains in services. However, the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.2%, indicating that while the market is softening, it isn't yet recessionary.

Markets Turn Defensive

As September begins, markets adopt a risk-off tone due to labor data uncertainty and profit-taking after a rally. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities outperformed, and Treasury yields fell, indicating possible Fed rate cuts. Crude oil prices hit new lows, reflecting global demand concerns. Despite the caution, similar growth scares have resolved, hinting at the potential for recovery if data improves.

Fed Signals Cuts

The Fed is likely to cut rates by 0.25% at the September meeting, with potential for larger cuts if conditions worsen. Focused on labor market stability, the Fed may signal support for economic growth, which could boost market sentiment. With inflation easing and lower rates on the horizon, opportunities may emerge for consumer and corporate spending to pick up, supporting ongoing economic expansion.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include CPI inflation and consumer sentiment data. On the earnings front, GME, ADBE, and ORCL are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Germany in crisis: Intel and Volkswagen mull a multibillion-dollar withdrawal from the country.
• UK attracts 111 billion pounds of orders for new gilt, a record.
• Intel's financial struggles threaten Biden admin chip strategy.
• Goldman Sachs predicts economic downturn under Trump.
• ECB cuts set to become trickier once key rate falls to near 3%.

Trading Rule Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #37 | September 8, 2024

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