Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week up 4.0%, this way recovering almost all of the loss from the previous week and getting closer to all-time highs again. A big week ahead of us with the September FOMC meeting and the first rate cut being expected on Wednesday. Here are the top stocks to watch this week and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $MCD
Break above 298.74 🎯 302.39 & 307
• $AAPL
Break above 225.48 🎯 230.40 & 232.92
• $MU
Break above 93.88 🎯 98.91 & 102.85
• $NFLX
Break above 711.33 🎯 730 & 745
• $MSFT
Break above 432.41 🎯 441.48 & 449.52
• $NKE
Break above 79.05 🎯 80.67 & 82.50

KV’s S&P 500 Analysis

KV here with your weekly SPY levels! Strong recovery on the S&P 500 last week, and just like that the price is back close to all-time highs. The upcoming week will be more about fundamentals rather than the technical side of things, but if investors react positively after FOMC on Wednesday, the price could easily see new all-time highs and a continuation of the uptrend.

Weekly Market Recap

Stock Market Volatility

August saw a few aggressive market swings, with the Dow fluctuating significantly due to mixed economic data. Recession fears, caused by weak jobs and manufacturing reports, led to steep declines, while hopes for economic resilience sparked rebounds. Despite recent volatility, the broader picture shows a market near all-time highs, suggesting that the bull market remains intact, though pullbacks may occur because of policy uncertainties and upcoming elections.

Inflation’s Mixed Progress

The latest inflation data showed core CPI steady at 3.2%, highlighting slower-than-expected progress due to rising shelter costs, though other categories saw declines. While markets hoped for a larger rate cut, the lack of further moderation suggests a smaller cut of 25 basis points. The broader trend of moderating inflation remains favorable, supporting the Fed's anticipated rate-cutting cycle beginning on September 18, which could provide a boost to markets without triggering a recession.

Rate Cuts Ahead

As inflation trends lower, the Fed is expected to ease monetary policy this upcoming week, starting with a small rate cut. Though markets have anticipated this shift, the path to rate cuts may not be straightforward. Historical instances where the Fed cut rates without an accompanying recession have shown strong market performance. Despite potential hiccups, easing rates amidst moderated inflation can offer a supportive environment for continued market growth.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include the FOMC meeting and retail sales data. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) is expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Trump pledges ‘100% tariff’ for countries that shun the dollar.
• OpenAI fundraising set to catapult startup's valuation to $150 billion.
• China set to raise retirement age for the first time in decades.
• Oracle shares jump as AI push perks up cloud demand.
• Goldman Sachs CEO says trading revenue is heading for a 10% slide in 3Q.

Trading Rule Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #38 | September 15, 2024

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