Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.6%, with the price slowing down as the price tries to make new all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched this week as a key inflation gauge for investors. Here are the top stocks to watch this week and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $MU
Break below 107.03 🎯 101.85 & 97.38
• $NVDA
Break above 124.04 🎯 129.80 & 135.58
• $MSFT
Break below 425.22 🎯 417.35 & 411.22
• $AAPL
Break above 229.40 🎯 233.08 & 237.23
• $GOOGL
Break below 160.69 🎯 158.06 & 155.21
• $PLTR
Break above 38.19 🎯 39.58 & 41

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

Weekly Market Recap

Market Focus Shifts

In the lead-up to the presidential election, stocks have performed well, with the market gaining 11% since early August. This is less about political ambivalence and more about investor focus on the Federal Reserve's clear policy direction, including expected rate cuts. As the election passes, markets will likely refocus on fundamentals: steady economic growth, easing Fed policy, and accelerating corporate earnings, driving a continued bull market.

Election Volatility Fades

Election-driven volatility is common, but it typically fades after the results. While a contested election could prolong market fluctuations, historical data shows that uncertainty quickly clears once a winner is declared. Following past elections, market volatility has declined substantially, and stocks have generally rebounded. This year’s election uncertainty, paired with potential policy gridlock, limits the likelihood of extreme policy changes, which should further ease market concerns.

Post-Election Market Gains

Historically, markets have fared well after elections, regardless of the winning party. Since World War II, stock performance has been positive in most post-election periods, with average gains of over 10% in the year following an election. Over a full presidential term, stocks have averaged a 61% increase, with broader economic and financial trends being more influential than election outcomes. The data suggests that long-term market performance is driven by fundamentals rather than politics.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include the ISM manufacturing PMI and the September nonfarm payrolls report. On the earnings front, Carnival Corporation and Nike are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Harris is set to rally again in Las Vegas as both campaigns emphasize swing-state Nevada.
• Biden DOJ slaps Visa with antitrust suit over debit card dominance
• Novo Nordisk CEO blames PBMs, insurers for Ozempic price tag.
• LVMH deal spurs rally in Moncler, speculation about luxury sector M&A.
• Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah kill hundreds across Lebanon.

Trading Rule Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #40 | September 29, 2024

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