Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.1%, with the price making new all-time highs. The next 30 days are very key for the markets with us being in earning season, as well as US elections being held in this period as well. Here are the top stocks to watch this week and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $SHOP
Break above 84.05 🎯 87.03 & 89.12
• $AAPL
Break above 229.75 🎯 233 & 237.23
• $SQ
Break above 70.67 🎯 72.30 & 74.67
• $MSFT
Break above 420.82 🎯 428.48 & 435.32
• $GOOGL
Break below 160.69 🎯 158.06 & 155.21
• $AMZN
Break above 191.16 🎯 194.80 & 197.85

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

Weekly Market Recap

Market Performance

U.S. labor market data for September surprised to the upside, with 254,000 jobs added, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and previous figures were revised higher. The labor market is normalizing post-pandemic as job openings decrease and labor supply increases. This could influence Fed rate cuts, with markets now expecting smaller cuts, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance on inflation.

Economic Growth

Since the mild contraction in early 2022, U.S. GDP has grown at an average of 3%, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong household finances. While growth is expected to slow toward a 2% rate, the economy remains on a solid foundation for corporate profits. Artificial intelligence could boost productivity, possibly increasing growth to 2.5% over time, but such outcomes remain uncertain.

Inflation & Fed Policy

Inflation has significantly moderated, with headline inflation down from 9.1% to 2.4%, allowing the Fed to begin rate cuts. Despite slightly higher-than-expected inflation, the Fed is likely to continue easing rates, focusing more on the labor market. As inflation trends toward 2%, the Fed is expected to reduce rates gradually to 3%-3.5%. However, inflation risks remain, especially as it tends to rise during the third year of bull markets.

Coming Up…

important economic releases this week include retail sales data and building permits. On the earnings front, NFLX, TSM, C, BAC, UAL and MS are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• ECB rates decision, what to expect on Oct. 17.
• Rio Tinto goes all in on lithium with $6.7 billion Arcadium buy.
• Google Play app store faces revenue hit as antitrust woes mount.
• Sterling drifts near three-week low against dollar.
• Donald Trump's plan to end 'double taxation' backed by Democrats.

Trading Rule Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #42 | October 13, 2024

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