Good evening. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.9%, with the price gapping up on Monday but maintaining that same zone throughout the whole week until the Friday close. Here are the top stocks to watch this week and what’s moving the markets.

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Top Stocks & Setups To Watch This Week

• $SHOP
Break above 84.05 🎯 87.03 & 89.12
• $DIS
Break above 97.88 🎯 99.61 & 101.39
• $PYPL
Break above 81.65 🎯 83.80 & 85.52
• $PLTR
Break above 44.39 🎯 45 & 46.50
• $MU
Break below 109.24 🎯 105.61 & 100
• $AMZN
Break above 191.16 🎯 194.80 & 197.85

KV’s S&P 500 Levels

Weekly Market Recap

Stock Market Surge

The stock market has been on a remarkable run, with gains of over 12% since August and nearly 23% year-to-date in 2024. If the S&P 500 maintains this momentum, it will mark two consecutive years of +20% returns, a rare achievement historically. This strong performance is not random, it’s driven by a growing economy, a favorable interest rate outlook, and rising corporate profits. While there's uncertainty ahead, past trends suggest the possibility of continued gains.

Historical Gains Insight

Back-to-back 20%-plus annual gains are unusual, happening only five times since 1950. Three-year streaks of such magnitude are even rarer, with only one instance in the 1990s dot-com era. Excluding that period, markets often see gains in the third year following back-to-back 20% gains, though at more modest rates. Rolling three-year returns show that while recent stock performance is strong, it doesn't yet signal overextension. Historically, market returns over a three-year stretch have remained healthy.

Favorable Market Outlook

Looking ahead to 2025, the market’s performance will depend heavily on economic growth, Fed policy, and corporate profits. While growth isn't as robust as in prior periods, a recession seems unlikely. The Fed's easing policy and accelerating corporate earnings create a favorable backdrop. While another 20% gain next year may be a stretch, current conditions suggest the potential for continued positive market performance, even if it’s more moderate.

Coming Up…

Important economic releases this week include new home sales and PMI data. On the earnings front, TSLA, VZ, BA, IBM, GM, T, KO, FCX, and AAL are expected to report this week.

Key Headlines We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 7 days.

• Europe’s bank bailout era draws to end with States selling.
• VW, BMW and Mercedes are getting left in the dust by China’s EVs.
• SpaceX pulls off unprecedented feat, grabs descending rocket with mechanical arms.
• Courts in US battleground states move to swiftly decide election cases.
• Boeing to lay off 10% of workforce amid financial troubles.

Trading Rule Of The Week

That was it for this week!

Stay safe,
KV 👋

Week #43 | October 20, 2024

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